Working Papers

1. Sowing Discontent: Unpacking Public Opposition to Land-Intensive FDI
   
   Abstract

   The mass popularity of foreign direct investment (FDI) as a development strategy contrasts sharply with recurrent opposition to FDI in mining, agriculture and forestry. Yet, political science lacks systematic evidence establishing whether and why foreign capital in these sectors is perceived differently. I argue that land intensity politicizes FDI by reallocating territorial authority, which citizens perceive as economic exclusion, cultural disruption, and sovereignty loss. To evaluate this argument, I first field a pre-registered survey experiment in Paraguay and Bolivia (N = 4,000) to identify the mechanisms underlying this backlash. The experiment demonstrates that information about large-scale foreign land use reliably reduces support for individual investment projects, while broader opposition to FDI emerges only under certain conditions. Second, I combine geocoded data on 716 foreign land acquisitions with cross-national public opinion surveys of more than 50,000 respondents across Latin America. I show that lived exposure to land-intensive FDI reduces support for foreign investment as a development strategy. These findings show that globalization's political consequences depend critically on how capital occupies territory, helping explain why land-intensive investments so often become focal points of political conflict and expropriation.

2. Historical Border Changes and Contemporary Public Health Outcomes
   (with David Carter and Matthew Gabel) Under Review
   Abstract

   The COVID-19 pandemic underlined the importance of voluntary adherence to government public health recommendations. Trust in government is a key predictor of adherence and plays a central role in compliance with public health policies. How trust deficits might be overcome to increase public health compliance depends crucially on its sources. We argue that the legacies of state-building and international politics in Europe are a significant source of variation in contemporary local adherence with public health recommendations. Building on research that links historical border changes to trust deficits in Europe, we show that more border changes in a locality relative to neighboring units affects two public health outcomes in Europe: COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy during the 2021 vaccine rollout and uptake of three established vaccines prior to the pandemic. We show that trust in government mediates the relationship between border instability and uptake of these established vaccines at the local level.

3. The War of the Triple Alliance and the Gendered Reshaping of Paraguayan Society
   (with Alex Avery) Under Review
   Abstract

   The War of the Triple Alliance (1864–1870) devastated Paraguay’s male population, with some estimates suggesting that up to 90 percent of adult men perished. This demographic rupture forced women to assume unprecedented roles as household heads, cultivators, and community leaders. We argue that such demographic shocks expand women’s political participation through necessity rather than institutional inclusion. Drawing on feminist institutionalism, we conceptualize political participation as a layered process and argue that demographic rupture is most likely to produce gains at lower levels of participation while access to formal political power lags behind. To test this framework, we link historical records of battles and troop movements to contemporary electoral data disaggregated by sex. We find strong evidence of increased women's participation as voters and candidates in municipalities most exposed to wartime mortality. At the same time, women's gains remain uneven. While access to executive office remains limited, women's representation in municipal councils is higher than expected, revealing that demographic rupture can produce durable gains in formal political presence even where institutional ceilings persist. These findings show how demographic rupture can generate durable expansions of women's political participation while producing partial and contingent pathways into de jure political authority.

Work in Progress

1. Beyond Greenwashing: International Certification and Local Legitimacy
2. Seeing Like a Citizen: Individuals and Territorial Threats
   (with David Carter)
3. Ground Rules: The Politics of Land Access
   (with Hannah Loeffler and Amy Pond)
4. From the Fields to Foreign Markets: How Ethnic Minority Representation Transforms Trade Policy
5. When the State Looks Away: Forbearance under Illegality in Brazil’s Mining Frontier
   (with Leticia Claro Oliveira)
6. How Historical Border Instability Affects Patterns of Economic Innovation
   (with David Carter)